We, meaning everyone, need to have a conversation about housing.

Please bear with me for this one, this is going to be a bit of a data dump, but it is important for everyone to see the current situation.

A few weeks ago the latest update to the Housing Needs Assessment for Grand Rapids and Kent County was published. The situation illustrated by the study is both one of rousing success and overwhelming need.

Some of the highlights:

Between 2010 and 2020, the population of Grand Rapids increased by 10,182 (5.4%), or 7,565 new households.
By 2027, the population of Grand Rapids is projected to increase by an additional 1.1%. Due to declining household size the number of households will increase by even more: 1.5%
Since 2016 the median sale price of a home in Grand Rapids increased by 99.2%.
The median rent of a one bedroom apartment increased 28.8% since 2020. From $1,095 to $1,410, in two years.
The occupancy rate of housing in Grand Rapids is 97.9%. That is vacancy rate of 2.1%.
The estimated need for new housing in Grand Rapids, within the next five years, is 14,106 new units.

This is serious, and it is a source of anxiety and distress for many of our neighbors. I’ve spoken to a neighbor who in 2021 had her rent increased by 12.7%; for a rent of $1,000/mo that is another $127/mo, or $1,524/yr. How many people got a 13% increase in pay in the same year? And these increases are coming year after year.

A need for 14,106 more homes is staggering. As Mayor Roselyn Bliss illustrated in her recent 2023 State Of The City address, 14,106 new homes is the equivalent of 580 blocks of new single-family houses. Thinking just of the 0.68 square miles that are Highland Park we can continue that thought exercise: Grand Rapids occupying 45.6 square miles with a need for 14,106 more homes is a need for +309 homes per square mile. If distributed evenly across the city [yes, that is obviously an over-simplification] this would be an increase of ~210 homes in Highland Park’s 0.68 square miles. How much of the neighborhood is 210 single-family houses? It is roughly from the bottom of Lydia St hill to Diamond Ave.

If you doubled up every house in that area you’d have 210 new homes. Staggering indeed.

How did we get here?

For several decades the neighborhood has effectively been frozen by the city’s last two generations of land-use regulations [Zoning]. There has not been a significant increase in housing in Highland Park since the 1980s.

Units of housing in Highland Park over time

Much of the growth in the 1980s was development of the then remaining vacant areas.

It is not difficult to understand from this graph how the city has been creating a pent-up demand for housing. As the city has strived, with great success, to grow (now being one the most robust employment hubs in the Midwest) it has also constrained its own growth. We are suffering from a desire for change while desiring for nothing to change.

This accumulating crisis can also be demonstrated by looking at average monthly rent going all the way back to 2015.

In light of the relentless rise of rent there have been conversations all across the city about the desperate need for affordable [income restricted] housing. As rents escalate it becomes especially difficult for lower income households to remain in the city - or remain in the neighborhoods of their choosing; the location of their family, friends, and employment. To remain in their own community. These conversations focused on affordable housing are important, yet there is one other key finding in the report which struck me, one which I hear much less focus on: the economic profile of who is coming.

For context, the Area Median Income (AMI) of the 49503 zip code is $52,441. The largest cohort of new households are those with incomes of twice that amount.

A common refrain heard in the affordable Housing conversations is that “nobody can afford” the “market-rate” rents which we see being constructed in some neighborhoods. Yet it is clear in the data that this statement is not true, there are people who can, and plenty of them.

There is a process which Urban Planners call “step down”. In a healthy housing market - one where people have many options - affluent households buy or rent higher-end homes while younger and lower income households buy or rent smaller, older, or “starter” homes. Unfortunately in the housing market the city’s current regulations have created these affluent households frequently purchase smaller and older homes, very often being the only homes available. This is “step down”, a process with leaves younger and lower income households with very few options. More affluent households do this - simply - because they can. It is a rational choice when options are so constrained.

Ian Malcom discussing the current housing market.

I’ve spoken with so many people who struggle to purchase their first home, being out-bid again and again for the few homes which go up for sale. While that flat red line in our Housing Units graph may look like a kind of stability, it’s a deception. If a neighborhood is the people who live there, and not merely the shape and size of the buildings, the current system is not serving those people. The choice to stay, or to join us, is available to fewer with each passing month.

Something has to give. People being able to move to, and remain in, neighborhoods of their choosing is essential to building and sustaining healthy communities. What I hear from neighbors is that we value community, we value knowing our neighbors. If this is so, what are the solutions our community can either bring to the table or show up to support? As always: hpnagr@gmail.com

The city of Grand Rapids is currently in the process of developing the next generation of land-use regulations. These regulations will be an outline of our communities response to this situation. It is imperative we, as a neighborhood, participate in this process – it is a conversation about our future. It is a conversation about the well-being and prosperity of our neighbors.